Obama election victory predicted by Immanuel Wallerstein

This video from the USA is about McCain flip flopping on the Iraq war.

From Immanuel Wallerstein from the USA:

“Obama’s Victory? How Big? How Far?”

Commentary No. 235, June 15, 2008

Let no one underestimate it. Barack Obama has won big. He has not only won the Democratic nomination for president. He is going to sweep the elections with a large majority of the Electoral College and a considerable increase in Democratic strength in both houses of the Congress. Before we analyze how far he will go, can go – that is, how much of a change this will actually mean – we must spell out how real is his electoral triumph.

In the long drawn-out contest between him and Hillary Clinton, both the polls and the results showed that each was stronger in certain categories of voters. Obama had greater strength among the younger, the more educated, the African-Americans of course, and the politically further left. But he also seemed more attractive to independent and Republican crossover voters. Clinton had greater strength among the older, the less educated voters, the women of course, the Latinos, and the politically more centrist.

However, the real decision was made by the superdelegates. And they voted on a quite different basis. They seemed convinced that he would be a stronger candidate, and could actually win in some traditionally Republican areas. Or even if he couldn’t win a majority in these states, he could help Democratic candidates for Congress to win. It is quite striking that he drew strong support from superdelegates in precisely these states, many of whom were individually among the more centrist, least left-oriented Democratic leaders. Since these superdelegates were anchored in their local situations, they are telling us something of U.S. political realities of 2008.

I have just done an analysis comparing McCain’s state by state strength in the latest polls and Bush’s proportion of the actual votes in 2004. In 45 of the 50 states, McCain is weaker, often much weaker, than Bush was. And in the other five, he is about the same. Of course, if Bush had won a state by a large margin, McCain will still win it albeit by a smaller one. But in the states that were close in 2004, the tide is in Obama’s favor.

Mark Steel: Barack Obama has nothing to fear but himself: here.

A criticism of Obama’s 15 July speech on Iraq and Afghanistan: here.

Top US commander publicly criticizes Obama Iraq policy: here.

2 thoughts on “Obama election victory predicted by Immanuel Wallerstein

  1. Posted by: “bigraccoon” bigraccoon@earthlink.net
    Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:10 pm (PDT)

    One Face at the NAACP. Another in the Senate


    Jul 17, 2008

    It wasn’t exactly a full hall when John McCain spoke to the NAACP http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/16/AR2008071602384.html
    at its 99th annual convention in Cincinnati Wednesday, but he did manage to coax a respectful, if not thunderous, standing ovation from the crowd by the time he was finished speaking and answering a few questions. Besides lauding Barack Obama, the Arizona Senator again favorably mentioned Teddy Roosevelt – something some right-wingers are unhappy about http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGY1NTBmMmY3N2U5NGJmZWYyYTYyNTc4NGRiODVkYzg=
    – noting TR’s controversial 1901 decision to invite black educator Booker T. Washington to dine at the White House.

    Somebody might have let McCain know ahead of time that NAACP leaders, especially W.E.B. Du Bois, were quite critical of Washington for being too accommodating to racist white society and for the endorsement of segregation he gave in his 1895 Atlanta Compromise http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/39/ speech. But mentioning Washington was a perfect introduction to the centerpiece of McCain’s speech, a standard, if tepid, right-wing rap on the failure of American public education, depicted as the fault of federal bureaucrats, teachers’ unions, state credential approvers, and inflexible school administrators.

    He didn’t mention, of course, that the NAACP itself gave McCain an F rating for his legislative work in the 109th Congress. In the organization’s estimation, he cast a wrong vote on eight of nine education-related issues. (Overall, McCain cast a wrong vote on 26 of 28 issues of interest to the NAACP. Obama got an A.)

    Among those votes, said Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/16/mccain-votes-down-edu/
    – Voted Against Head Start Programs: In 2005, for instance, McCain voted against increasing “federal spending on Head Start programs by $153 million.”

    – Voted Against Expanding Pell Grants: While 45 percent of African Americans rely on Pell Grants to pay for college, McCain has consistently voted to cut the value of Pell Grants.

    – Voted Against Title I Education Grants: McCain voted against “increasing spending on Title I education grants, which are designed to help public schools that serve predominantly low-income students, by $3 billion.”

    Indeed, McCain has consistently voted against funding Head Start and against appropriating enough money to cover the mandated costs to schools for implementing the No Child Left Behind program. He also voted against reducing the five-year tax cut by $5.4 billion so the money could be spent on education, voted for $40 billion in cuts to entitlement programs, including student loan programs, and voted against an amendment to increase by $7 billion spending on education, training and low-income support programs.

    Talk is cheap. Praising Barack Obama costs nothing. Reforming education, something everyone agrees needs doing – costs money. Experience has taught us that Senator McCain has far more heart for cutting rich people’s taxes than for appropriating enough dollars so America’s kids will get the education they deserve.


  2. Pingback: Climate denialism-racism connection | Dear Kitty. Some blog

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